Roanoke Valley Market Snapshot
Q3 – 2019
By: Patrick Wilkinson
Posted 10/3/2019 (UPDATED 10/14/19)
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Here you’ll find in-depth analysis, graphs and data, of residential real estate sales for the Roanoke Valley of Virginia based on data from RVAR. Be sure to see trends in mortgage interest rates at the end. You are welcomed to share this with your friends, and share on Facebook or Twitter (just click share buttons at the bottom of the page). Here’s the Roanoke Valley Market Snapshot Q3 – 2019. Thanks! Patrick
OVERALL THOUGHTS ON Q3 – 2019
Residential home sales in the Roanoke Valley just hit the highest 3rd quarter sales volume in 14 years, with a total of 1,640 homes sold. Additionally, the total sales volume for the first 3 Quarters of 2019 is 4,407 homes (up 2.92%, above 4,282 homes in the first 3 Quarters of 2018). 2019 could very well be the best year for sales volume since 2005.
This is due in part to:
1) The robust U.S. economy (+2% GDP per Trading Economics)
2) Low U.S. unemployment rate (3.5% per BLS, at a 50 year low)
3) Positive consumer sentiment index (93.8 per University of MI)
There are many more buyers in the market for a home. However, there are WAY fewer homes to choose from, due to brisk sales, and limited supply, so sellers are doing very well when a home is priced correctly! Here are two terms to remember when trying to make sense of the “housing shortage” phenomenon.
First, “Active In Range” (or AIR) means number homes that were on the market during a specific time period. The Q3 AIR has been decreasing each year since 2011 (a bad year in real estate), and is at its lowest point right now since 2001 (which is a positive development for property values).
– In Q3 of 2019 there were 4,021 homes AIR (down 7.20% from Q3 2018)
– In Q3 of 2018 there were 4,333 homes AIR
– In Q3 of 2017 there were 4,632 homes AIR
– In Q3 of 2011 there were 6,396 homes AIR (hard times)
Second, “Absorption Rate” (also called “Sell Out Time”) which is the rate, expressed in months, at which the entire supply of homes will sell out. According to an article by NAR “six months’ supply is considered a balanced market.” The Q3 2019 Absorption Rate for the Roanoke Valley is 3.06 months (extremely low, and down 26% from 4.15 months in Q3 2018).
This sets up 2019 to be an excellent year for home-sellers. But sellers only do well if buyers have access to great loan programs. Interest rates have come down since the summer, and we are still seeing historically low mortgage interest rates and excellent loan programs available for home buyers. Take a look at today’s mortgage interest rates at the end of this post.
3rd Quarter – 2019 – HOME SALES
– Chart below illustrates Q3 home sales for each year from 2000 to 2019.
– Average Q3 home sales during those 20 years equals 1,353 homes
– Q3 2019 sales (1,640) are higher by 287 homes (21.21% up) over 20-yr Q3 avg (1,353)
– Q3 2019 sales (1,640) are higher by 105 homes (6.84% up) from Q3 2018 (1,535)
3rd Quarter – 2019 – AVERAGE PRICE (NEW ALL TIME Q3 HIGH!)
– Chart below illustrates Q3 average sales price for each year from 2000 to 2019.
– Average Q3 home sales price during those 20 years equals $196,166
– Q3 2019 avg price ($235,526) is higher by $39,427 (20.10% up) over 20-yr Q3 avg ($196,099)
– Q3 2019 avg price ($235,526) is higher by $20,599 (9.58% up) from Q3 2018 ($214,927)
3rd Quarter – 2019 – AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET (NEW ALL TIME LOW!)
– Chart below illustrates Q3 average DOM for each year from 2000 to 2019 (lower is better).
– Average Q3 DOM during those 20 years equals 83 days
– Q3 2019 DOM (58) is lower by 25 days (30.12% down) over 20-yr Q3 avg (83)
– Q3 2019 DOM (58) is lower by 7 days (10.76% down) from Q3 2018 (65)
Total RVAR Annual Sales 2000 through end of 2018
– Chart below illustrates annual home sales for each year from 2000 to 2018.
– Average annual home sales during those 19 years equals 4,698 homes
– 2018 sales (5,537) higher by 138 homes (2.6% up) over 2017 sales (5,399)
– 2018 sales (5,537) higher by 839 homes (17.9% up) over 19 year avg (4,698)
TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATES** & HISTORY – As of 10/3/19
According to Bankrate.com the following mortgage interest rates** are available today:
3.778% APR (3.750% rate, $300k loan, 20% down, 740+ credit, 0 pts, $1,111/mo payment)
3.422% APR (3.375% rate, $300k loan, 20% down, 740+ credit, 0 pts, $1,701/mo payment)
5/1 Adj Rate:
4.301% APR (4.250% rate, $300k loan, 20% down, 740+ credit, 0 pts, $1,181/mo payment)
Chart: 40 years of mortgage rates:
Historical charts courtesy of Freddie Mac.
*The RVAR is the Roanoke Valley Association of Realtors and owns the Roanoke MLS
** All loans are subject to credit approval. These rates are not an offer of financing. Every home buyer must be approved through a qualified lender. Loan programs and rates subject to change. The Real Estate Group and/or LivingInRoanoke.com, and/or Patrick Wilkinson, is not / are not a lender.
Roanoke Valley Market Snapshot Q3 – 2019
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– Patrick Wilkinson, Living In Roanoke