Roanoke Valley Market Snapshot
Q1 – 2019
By: Patrick Wilkinson
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Here you’ll find in-depth analysis, but easy to digest graphs, of residential real estate sales for the Roanoke Valley of Virginia based on data from RVAR. Be sure to see trends in mortgage interest rates at the end. You are welcomed to share this with your friends, and share on Facebook or Twitter (just click share buttons at the bottom of the page). Thanks! -Patrick
OVERALL THOUGHTS ON Q1 – 2019
Sales of residential homes in the Roanoke Valley were brisk in the first quarter of 2019 with a total of 1,031 homes sold. If we dig deep we’ll see that 2019 is setting up to be possibly the best year since 2005 (maybe even better). Here’s why…. there are WAY fewer homes to choose from and sellers are finally doing great! There are two terms to remember to truly understand this. Here’s the Roanoke Valley Market Snapshot Q1 – 2019
First, “Active In Range” (or AIR) means number homes that were on the market during that time period. The Q1 AIR has significantly decreased each year since 2011 (which was a rough year in real estate), and is at its lowest point right now since 2001. This is good news for home sellers, and means homes are selling quite well.
– In Q1 of 2019 there were 3,664 homes AIR (lower is better!)
– In Q1 of 2018 there were 3,875 homes AIR
– In Q1 of 2017 there were 4,372 homes AIR
– In Q1 of 2011 there were 6,261 homes AIR (dark days of the real estate crash)
And second, “Absorption Rate” which is the rate, expressed in months, at which the entire supply of homes will sell out. According to an article by NAR “six months’ supply is considered a balanced market.” The Q1 2019 Absorption Rate for the Roanoke Valley is 4.8 months.
This sets up 2019 to be an excellent year for home-sellers. But sellers only do well if buyers have access to great loans. Interest rates have come down in the last 3 months, and we are still seeing historically low mortgage interest rates, and excellent loan programs available to home buyers. Take a look at rates at the end of this post.
1st Quarter – 2019 – HOME SALES
– Chart below illustrates Q1 home sales for each year from 2000 to 2019.
– Average Q1 home sales during those 20 years equals 892 homes
– Q1 2019 sales (1,031) are higher by 139 homes (15.58% up) over 20-yr Q1 average (892)
– Q1 2019 sales (1,031) are lower by 17 homes (1.62% down) from Q1 2018 (1,048)
1st Quarter – 2018 – AVERAGE PRICE (ALL TIME Q1 HIGH!)
– Chart below illustrates Q1 average sales price for each year from 2000 to 2019.
– Average Q1 home sales price during those 20 years equals $175,956
– Q1 2019 avg price ($210,619) is higher by $34,663 (19.70% up) over 20-yr Q1 avg ($175,956)
– Q1 2019 avg price ($210,619) is higher by $10,913 (5.46% up) from Q1 2018 ($199,706)
1st Quarter – 2019 – AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)
– Chart below illustrates Q1 average DOM for each year from 2000 to 2019.
– Average Q1 DOM during those 20 years equals 95 days
– Q1 2019 DOM (92) is lower by 3 days (3.16% down) over 20-yr Q1 avg (95)
– Q1 2018 DOM (92) is higher by 1 day (1.09% up) from Q1 2018 (91)
Total RVAR Annual Sales 2000 through end of 2018
– Chart below illustrates annual home sales for each year from 2000 to 2018.
– Average annual home sales during those 19 years equals 4,698 homes
– 2018 sales (5,537) higher by 138 homes (2.6% up) over 2017 sales (5,399)
– 2018 sales (5,537) higher by 839 homes (17.9% up) over 19 year avg (4,698)
TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATES** & HISTORY – As of 4/11/18
According to Bankrate.com the following mortgage interest rates** are available today:
4.285% APR (4.250% rate, $300k loan, 20% down, 740+ credit, 0 pts, $1,181/mo payment)
3.539% APR (3.500% rate, $300k loan, 20% down, 740+ credit, 0 pts, $1,716/mo payment)
5/1 Adj Rate:
3.967% APR (3.540% rate, $300k loan, 20% down, 740+ credit, 0 pts, $1,083/mo payment)
To see a chart of last 30 year history of mortgage rates: Click Here
Historical charts courtesy of Jamey Roberts at RMH Mortgage.
*The RVAR is the Roanoke Valley Association of Realtors and owns the Roanoke MLS
** All loans are subject to credit approval. These rates are not an offer of financing. Every home buyer must be approved through a qualified lender. Loan programs and rates subject to change. The Real Estate Group and/or LivingInRoanoke.com, and/or Patrick Wilkinson, is not / are not a lender.
Roanoke Valley Market Snapshot Q1 – 2019
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– Patrick Wilkinson, Living In Roanoke