2019 The Year Ahead In Roanoke Valley Real Estate
By: Patrick Wilkinson
Posted 1/27/2019
It’s a brand new year and we are all looking forward to 2019 The Year Ahead In Roanoke Valley Real Estate. The following will give you a taste of what’s to come in the housing industry, and a quick peek back where we’ve been in 2018. We’ll look into trends in sales, remodeling, mortgages, and more. You are welcomed to share this with your friends.
– Patrick Wilkinson, Associate Broker
The Real Estate Group
BREAKING NEWS:
– 2018 AVERAGE SOLD PRICE HIGHEST IN HISTORY
– 2018 HOME SALES VOLUME HIGHEST IN 11 YEARS
– ABSORPTION RATE IS 4.33 MONTHS
A Quick Look Back At 2018
2018 home sales in the Roanoke Valley were at their highest level since 2006. In 2018 a total of 5,522 homes sold, up 123 homes (2.3% up) from the 5,399 homes sold in 2017.
– Click Here for Q4 2018 Roanoke Valley Market Snapshot
– Click Here for all 2000 – 2018 Roanoke Valley Numbers
2019 The Year Ahead
HOUSING SALES TRENDS
There are several key indicators helpful in predicting market performance. The trend is showing another positive year for real estate sales in the Roanoke Valley.
Indicator #1: “Active In Range” (or AIR) means the number of homes that were on the market during a specific time period. The year-over-year AIR has consistently decreased since 2010, the absolute bottom of the recession for Roanoke Valley real estate. In January of 2011 the AIR was 4,522, which is almost double the AIR to date in January of 2019 which stands at 2,266. Homes are moving….
Indicator #2: “Absorption Rate” which is the rate, expressed in months, at which the entire supply of homes will sell out. According to an article by NAR “six months’ supply is considered a balanced market.” The current Absorption Rate for the Roanoke Valley is 4.33 months based on 2018 sales. That is great news for sellers, and for a brisk sales marketplace. Incidentally, the Absorption Rate in January 2011 was 16.56 months (YIKES!)
Indicator #3: “Days On Market” When a home is placed on the market on the MLS the clock starts ticking on the sale. Lower numbers for DOM are a great indicator of where the housing market is headed. In the last 19 years, 2012 saw the highest average of 116 DOM (bad). In 2018 we saw the average drop to an 11 year low of 75 DOM.
Indicator #4: “Average Price” Sustained upward pressure on real estate prices is one of the most reliable indicators that the market is robust and getting better, as long as the upward pressure isn’t excessive. A “normal” rate of increase in markets similar to The Roanoke Valley is around 3% per year. And on average, that is where we’ve stayed since hitting bottom on prices in 2011. The year-over-year price appreciation in the Roanoke Valley in those 7 years has averaged a 2.9% increase. While 2018 is the highest average price ever recorded ($216,765) in the Roanoke Valley, it arrived there very slowly compared to more volatile price swings (10% or more) in some large US cities.
2019 will continue to be an excellent year for home-sellers.
Click Here for a free Comparative Market Analysis on your home
REMODELING AND DESIGN TRENDS
Want to be on the cutting edge of 2019 remodeling and design trends?
10 Home Design Trends You’ll Want To Know In 2019 – Builder Online Magazine
9 Home Features Your Buyers Don’t Know They Need – Builder Online Magazine
FourPlans: Hot Home Designs For 2019 – Builder Online Magazine
25 Living Room Color Palettes You’ve Never Tried – HGTV Online Magazine
6 Products For Outdoor Living – Builder Online Magazine
Cost to remodel compared with the return you can expect when selling:
Cost VS. Value Report 2019 – Remodeling Magazine
MORTGAGE TRENDS
Today’s Mortgage Rates** As of 1/27/19
According to Bankrate.com the following mortgage interest rates** are available today:
30-Yr Fixed:
4.657% APR (4.625% rate $300k loan 20% down 740+ credit 0 pts $1233/mo P&I)
15-Yr Fixed:
4.235% APR (4.125% rate $300k loan 20% down 740+ credit 0 pts $1790/mo P&I)
10 Yr Fixed:
4.409% APR (4.250% rate $300k loan 20% down 740+ credit 0 pts $2459/mo P&I)
5/1 Adj Rate:
4.816% APR (3.959% rate $300k loan 20% down 740+ credit 0 pts, $1140/mo P&I)
History Of Mortgage Rates
Click Here to see a chart of last 30 year history of mortgage rates.
Courtesy of Jamey Roberts at Residential Mortgage Services.
2019 will be an excellent year for home buyers
Click Here to receive a free Initial Consultation on Home Buying.
*The RVAR is the Roanoke Valley Association of Realtors and owns the Roanoke MLS
** All loans are subject to credit approval. These rates are not an offer of financing. Every home buyer must be approved through a qualified lender. Loan programs and rates subject to change. The Real Estate Group and/or LivingInRoanoke.com, and/or Patrick Wilkinson, is not / are not a lender.
P.S. PLEASE DON’T KEEP US A SECRET!