Roanoke Valley Market Snapshot
Q2 – 2018
By: Patrick Wilkinson

Posted 7/6/2018

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Here you’ll find in-depth analysis, but easy to digest graphs, of residential real estate sales for the Roanoke Valley of Virginia based on data from RVAR. Be sure to see trends in mortgage interest rates at the end of this report as well. I only send this out to my past clients and friends, but you are welcomed to share this with your friends. You can even share on Facebook or Twitter (just click share buttons at the bottom of the page, thanks in advance).

BREAKING NEWS: Q2 2018 Sellers Get Highest Average Price EVER!

OVERALL THOUGHTS ON Q2 – 2018

Sales of residential homes in the Roanoke Valley were excellent in the first half of 2018 with a total of 2,626 homes sold, and of those 1,578 homes sold in the second quarter (Q2). As you will see in the Average Price graph (below) home sellers are getting the highest average sales prices ever in the history of the Roanoke Valley! While 2018 is running a total of 12 homes behind 2017, this year still has the potential be the best year since 2007. Here’s why…. there are still fewer homes to choose from and sellers are finally doing great. A scarcity of homes often causes a perceived “buying-frenzy” and home buyers will buy homes quickly and with less analysis than when home choices are plentiful. This trend ramps up the number of homes sold in short periods of time. There are two important indicators which point toward a scarcity of homes.

First, “Active In Range” (or AIR) means number homes that were on the market during that time period. The Q2 AIR has significantly decreased each year since 2011, and is at its lowest point right now since 2005. This is good news for home sellers, and means homes are selling quite well.
– In Q2 of 2018 there were 4,564 homes AIR
– In Q2 of 2017 there were 4,862 homes AIR
– In Q2 of 2011 there were 6,625 homes AIR (dark days of the real estate crash)
– In Q2 of 2005 there were 4,506 homes AIR

And second, “Absorption Rate”  which is the rate, expressed in months, at which the entire supply of homes will sell out. According to an article by NAR “six months’ supply is considered a balanced market.” The Q2 2018 Absorption Rate for the Roanoke Valley is 4.03 months.

This means 2018 will continue to be an excellent year for home-sellers (click here if you are considering selling your home) But sellers only do well if buyers have access to great loans. This is still the case with the historically low mortgage interest rates, and excellent loan programs available to home buyers (click here if you are considering buying a home)Take a look at current interest rates at the end of this post.

MORE GOOD NEWS! Roanoke was rated as one of the ” Top 10 Job Markets In 2018″ by Zippia. Click Here to see the entire article in USA Today.

2nd Quarter – 2018 – HOME SALES

– Chart below illustrates Q2 home sales for each year from 2000 to 2018.
– Average Q2 home sales during those 19 years equals 1,379 homes
– Q2 2018 sales (1,578) are higher by 199 homes (14.4% up) over 19-yr Q2 average (1,379)
– Q2 2018 sales (1,578) are higher by 16 homes (1.0% up) from Q2 2017 (1,562)

2nd Quarter – 2018 – AVERAGE PRICE

BREAKING NEWS: Q2 2018 Sellers Get Highest Average Price EVER!

– Chart below illustrates Q2 average sales price for each year from 2000 to 2018.
– Average Q2 home sales price during those 19 years equals $190,446
– Q2 2018 avg price ($231,460) is higher by $41,014 (21.5% up) over 19-yr Q2 avg ($190,446)
– Q2 2018 avg price ($231,460) is higher by $14,457 (6.7% up) from Q2 2017 ($217,003)

2nd Quarter – 2018 – AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)

– Chart below illustrates Q2 average DOM for each year from 2000 to 2018.
– Average Q2 DOM during those 19 years equals 86 days
– Q2 2018 DOM (72) is lower by 14 days (16.3% down) over 19-yr Q2 avg (86) GOOD!
– Q2 2018 DOM (72) is lower by 9 days (11.1% down) from Q2 2017 (81) ALSO GOOD!

Total RVAR Annual Sales 2000 through end of 2017

– Chart below illustrates annual home sales for each year from 2000 to 2017.
– Average annual home sales during those 18 years equals 4,651 homes
– 2017 sales (5,399) higher by 280 homes (5.5% up) over 2016 sales (5,119)
– 2017 sales (5,399) higher by 748 homes  (16.0% up) over 18 year avg (4,651)
– We’ll update this chart to 2018 numbers as soon as the year is over….

TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATES** & HISTORY – As of 7/5/18

According to Bankrate.com the following mortgage interest rates** are available today:

30-Yr Fixed:
4.404% APR (4.375% rate, $300k loan, 20% down, 740+ credit, 0 pts, $1,198/mo P&I payment)
15-Yr Fixed:
3.727% APR (3.625% rate, $300k loan, 20% down, 740+ credit, 0 pts, $1,730/mo P&I payment)
10 Yr Fixed:
3.804% APR (3.750% rate, $300k loan, 20% down, 740+ credit, 0 pts, $2,401/mo P&I payment)
5/1 Adj Rate:
4.552% APR (3.625% rate, $300k loan, 20% down, 740+ credit, 0 pts, $1,095/mo P&I payment)

To see a chart of last 30 year history of mortgage rates: Click Here
Historical charts courtesy of Mortgage News Daily.

*The RVAR is the Roanoke Valley Association of Realtors and owns the Roanoke MLS
** All loans are subject to credit approval. These rates are not an offer of financing. Every home buyer must be approved through a qualified lender. Loan programs and rates subject to change. The Real Estate Group and/or LivingInRoanoke.com, and/or Patrick Wilkinson, is not / are not a lender.

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